Where to find it | Sidebar → People → ETCR (Beta) |
Who can see it | Everyone except standard-access users |
Can you change data here? | No — read-only |
How fresh is it? | Loaded once per visit from a monthly data feed |
What it's for
ETCR is the Expansion-to-Churn Ratio: closed expansion revenue divided by confirmed churned revenue.
We lose recurring revenue every month when clients leave, and win it back by expanding services with the clients who stay. The company goal is 60% — for every dollar of confirmed recurring revenue lost, at least 60 cents won back.
This page makes that accountable per person. It shows the ratio for each Account Director, each Group Director and each division, colored against the goal, and pairs the actuals with a best case and a worst case so you can tell whether a month is still winnable before it ends.
ETCR is the headline outcome metric for the Service Expansion initiative.
What you'll see
Three tabs — Account Director, Group Director, Division. The table sorts worst-first by default, so the people furthest from goal are at the top.
Summary cards — Total ETCR, expansion closed, confirmed churn, and the gap to the 60% goal.
A forecast drawer (Show forecast inputs) containing the two numbers that make this page useful mid-month:
Floor — the worst case. Only expansion already closed, against all churn expected. This is your ratio if nothing else closes.
Ceiling — the best case. Closed plus commit plus best-case pipeline, against all churn expected. This is your ratio if everything closes.
Plus year-to-date versions of the same.
A division drill-down — click any division row to see each person inside it with their own ratio.
How to use it
Monthly review of Account Directors. Open the page — it defaults to last month — and stay on the AD tab. The lowest ratios are already at the top, and rows below goal are highlighted. That list is your 1:1 agenda.
Find the cause of a division's miss. Switch to the Division tab, click the division that's below goal, and read the per-person breakdown. It tells you immediately whether the gap is one person's book or something systemic.
Decide whether this month is still winnable. Open the forecast drawer. Ceiling above 60% but Floor below means it's winnable — push the pipeline. Ceiling below 60% means the expected churn can't be covered by what's in the pipeline at all; escalate retention instead of chasing deals.
Look at a quarter. Select several months. Signal sums the dollars and recalculates every ratio from the summed dollars — ratios are never averaged, so one strong month can't mask a weak one. A note on screen confirms this.
Prepare a specific conversation. Filter to one person and the whole page collapses to their book. Pair their confirmed churn with their forecast expansion to frame the ask concretely: "you need $X of the commit pipeline to close to cover your churn."
How the numbers are built
Expansion closed is retainer expansion plus project revenue divided by six — that converts one-time project revenue into a monthly-recurring equivalent so it can be compared fairly against recurring churn.
Confirmed churn is churn already confirmed. Forecast churn adds what's still expected.
Forecast expansion is closed plus commit plus best-case pipeline.
Floor = closed expansion ÷ all expected churn. Ceiling = forecast expansion ÷ all expected churn.
Good to know
It's beta, and labelled as such. Definitions and layout may still change.
0% is not the same as failure. A zero ratio usually means no churn was recorded, which is why it's deliberately left uncolored rather than flagged red.
The 60% goal is the same for everyone. It isn't set per division or per role, and it doesn't come from the KPI Targets screen.
Clearing all dates aggregates everything, all-time, rather than showing a single month. Worth noticing before you quote a number.
This page ignores the app's month selector. It has its own Close Date filter — the only page in Signal that works this way.
The numbers come from a separate data feed built by the AI/ML team, not from the finance figures behind the rest of Signal. So the churn dollars here won't necessarily reconcile line-for-line with revenue screens elsewhere. For questions about what counts as confirmed churn, or how commit and best-case stages are defined, ask the AI/ML team.
Per-client ETCR doesn't exist yet. Portfolio Review has placeholder columns for it that show a dash. This page goes down to person level, and within a division to individuals.
The division drill-down can be empty without anything being broken — it comes from a separate feed loaded independently, and it also respects your date filter. If it's empty across all dates while the main table has data, report it.
Common questions
What does ETCR stand for and how is it calculated? Expansion-to-Churn Ratio: closed expansion revenue ÷ confirmed churned revenue, where project revenue is divided by six to make it monthly-equivalent. $60k of expansion against $100k of churn is 60% — exactly the goal.
Why can't I see this page? It's hidden from standard access. See Who can see what.
What's the difference between Floor and Ceiling? Floor assumes nothing more closes. Ceiling assumes everything in the pipeline closes. Both divide by all expected churn. Floor below goal with Ceiling above means the month is winnable.
Do these numbers match our finance system? Not necessarily line-for-line. They come from a separate feed with its own definitions of confirmed and forecast churn. Ask the AI/ML team about the input definitions.
Can the 60% goal be different per division? Not today. It's a single company-wide goal applied identically everywhere on this page.
Why is project revenue divided by six? To express one-time project revenue as a monthly-recurring equivalent — roughly a six-month amortisation — so it can be set against recurring churn. Confirm with the Service Expansion metric owner before quoting it as policy.
I selected several months. How were they combined? Dollars are summed, then every ratio is recalculated from those sums. Ratios are never averaged.
Can I see ETCR for one client? No. Person and division level only, for now.
Related
Service Expansion — which clients to expand; this page measures whether it worked
Churn Risk and Retention Forecast — the churn side of the story
Churn Log — the churn that's already happened, in finance terms
Glossary — ETCR, floor and ceiling